Politik Perdagangan Kedelai Indonesia dan Prospek Pasar Global: Potensi dan Kontribusi Lampung
Abstract
Ketergantungan kedelai Indonesia mencerminkan persoalan resiliensi pangan dalam struktur ekonomi politik internasional, sekaligus isu keadilan distribusi dan kemaslahatan yang relevan dengan hukum ekonomi Islam. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan antara ketergantungan impor, diversifikasi pasokan, peluang pasar produk turunan kedelai, dan kontribusi Lampung dalam memperkuat produksi domestik. Dengan pendekatan kualitatif berbasis telaah dokumen kebijakan, data perdagangan, dan literatur akademik, kajian ini menempatkan kedelai sebagai komoditas strategis yang dipengaruhi relasi kuasa pasar global, diplomasi komoditas, dan tata kelola pangan nasional. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 97% kebutuhan kedelai Indonesia masih dipenuhi melalui impor, terutama dari Amerika Serikat, Brasil, dan Argentina, sehingga meningkatkan kerentanan terhadap volatilitas harga, gangguan pasokan, nilai tukar, dan tekanan geopolitik. Pada tingkat subnasional, Lampung berkontribusi sekitar 2,54% terhadap produksi kedelai nasional atau ±17.470 ton pada periode 2015–2019. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa diversifikasi pasokan ke Asia, Eropa Timur, Amerika Latin, dan Afrika perlu dipadukan dengan penguatan produksi daerah, perbaikan lahan masam, varietas adaptif, tumpangsari, dan hilirisasi produk turunan. Secara konseptual, artikel ini mengisi celah kajian dengan mempertautkan politik perdagangan, kapasitas daerah, dan prinsip kemaslahatan. Integrasi ekonomi politik internasional dan hukum ekonomi Islam menjadi dasar tata kelola kedelai yang lebih resilien, adil, dan berkelanjutan bagi kedaulatan pangan nasional jangka panjang Indonesia.
References
Agung, I. G., & Apsari, A. (2025). Analysis of the Impact of Import Tariff Policy on Soybean Import Demand in Indonesia. 3(5), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.61292/birev.197
Amarachi Queen Olufemi-Phillips, Abbey Ngochindo Igwe, Adekunle Stephen Toromade, Nsisong Louis Eyo-Udo, & Titilope Tosin Adewale. (2024). Global trade dynamics’ impact on food pricing and supply chain resilience: A quantitative model. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews, 24(2), 492–519. https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2024.24.2.3350
Anikwe, M. A. N., & Ife, K. (2023). The role of soil ecosystem services in the circular bioeconomy. Frontiers in Soil Science, 3(November), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoil.2023.1209100
Antara, Kantor Berita Indonesia. (2026) "Lampung Kembangkan kedelai 1.000 hektare kurangi ketergantungan impor". Terbit 4 Juni 2026. https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5594121/lampung-kembangkan-kedelai-1000-hektare-kurangi-ketergantungan-impor
Arda, The Association of Religion Data Archives. (2025) Benin and Togo Major World Religions. https://www.thearda.com/world-religion/national-profiles?u=221c
Ashari, Sharifuddin, J., Mohammed, Z. A., & Ramli, N. N. (2020). Green Revolution’s Role and Impact: Organic Farming Potential for Indonesian Suistanable Agriculture Peran dan Dampak Revolusi Hijau: Potensi Usaha Tani Organik untuk Pertanian Berkelanjutan di Indonesia. Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi, 37(2), 115–125. http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/fae.v37n2.2019.115-125
Barboza Martignone, G. M., Ghosh, B., Behrendt, K., & Papadas, D. (2024). Leadership shift in the global soybean market: Dynamic connectedness approach (TVP-VAR). Heliyon, 10(16), e36071. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36071
Dinas Kominfotik Provinsi Lampung. (2025). "Panen Kedelai di Lampung Utara jadi Simbol Kolabolari Pemerintah dan TNI Wujudkan Kedaulatan Pangan Nasional". Terbit pada 29 Oktober 2025. https://lampungprov.go.id/detail-post/panen-kedelai-di-lampung-utara-jadi-simbol-kolaborasi-pemerintah-dan-tni-wujudkan-kedaulatan-pangan-nasional
Edet, E. A., Adie, D., & Umahi, J. E. (2024). Dependency Theory and Development Policy in A 21st Century Context. Journal of Political Discourse, 2(4 (2), 124–132. Retrieved from https://jopd.com.ng/index.php/jopdz/article/view/243
Endriani, Rivaie, A. A., Barus, J., Meithasari, D., & Asnawi, R. (2021). Improving the quality of acid soils to increase soybean yields and farmer’s incomes. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 648(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/648/1/012059
Gao, J., Wang, F., Liu, B., Liu, F., & Nielbo, K. L. (2024). Fundamental limits to economic development in developing and underdeveloped countries imposed by global hierarchy. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 68(November 2023), 298–312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.11.001
Gebriella Sagina Hutabarat, Akim, & Darmansjah Djumala. (2024). Expansion of Indonesian Trade in the Pacific Region Through Increasing Indonesian Trade - Papua New Guinea. Journal of Law, Politic and Humanities, 5(1), 263–273. https://doi.org/10.38035/jlph.v5i1.899
Giraudo, M. E. (2020). Dependent development in South America: Tiongkok and the soybean nexus. Journal of Agrarian Change, 20(1), 60–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/joac.12333
Giraudo, M. E., & Grugel, J. (2022). Imaginaries of Soy and the Costs of Commodity-led Development: Reflections from Argentina. Development and Change, 53(4), 796–826. https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12714
Hamulczuk, M., Pawlak, K., Stefańczyk, J., & Gołębiewski, J. (2023). Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security. Agriculture (Switzerland), 13(11). https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13112154
Harsono, A., Harnowo, D., Ginting, E., & Adi Anggraeni Elisabeth, D. (2022). Soybean in Indonesia: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities to Achieve Self-Sufficiency. Legumes Research - Volume 1. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.101264
Haveman, H. (2024). Christopher Marquis and Kunyuan Qiao. Mao and Markets: The Communist Roots of Chinese Enterprise. Administrative Science Quarterly, 69(1), NP10–NP13. https://doi.org/10.1177/00018392231207080
Hillman, A. J., Withers, M. C., & Collins, B. J. (2009). Resource dependence theory: A review. Journal of Management, 35(6), 1404–1427. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206309343469
Ihle, R., Bar-Nahum, Z., Nivievskyi, O., & Rubin, O. D. (2022). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 66(4), 775–796. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12496
Iskandar, R., Kurniawan, B. P. Y., Hidayat, T., Malika, U. E., & Galushasti, A. (2024). Assessing the Sustainability and Performance of Local Soybean Production in Indonesia: A Multidimensional Scaling Analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 19(2), 539–5748. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.190211
Jia, J., Yang, W., Wu, F., & Cui, X. (2024). Elevated diversity of the supply chain boosts global food system resilience. Environmental Research Letters, 19(2). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2434
Jia, N., Yang, H., Lan, X., Li, Y., Song, Y., Zhang, Z., Song, W., Zhao, R., Ma, T., & Chen, R. (2025). Global soybean trade intensifies the impacts of dietary transition on human mobility. IScience, 28(5), 112426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.112426
Jiang, H., Luo, Y., Xia, J., Hitt, M., & Shen, J. (2023). Resource dependence theory in international business: Progress and prospects. Global Strategy Journal, 13(1), 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1002/gsj.1467
Jiang, X., & Chen, Y. (2020). The potential of absorbing foreign agricultural investment to improve food security in developing countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062481
Junaidi, A., Mashar, A. Zum, Basrowi, Muharomah, D. R., Situmorang, J. W., Lukas, A., Asgar, A., Herlina, L., Manalu, L. P., & Payung, L. (2024). Enhancing sustainable soybean production in Indonesia: evaluating the environmental and economic benefits of MIGO technology for integrated supply chain sustainability. Uncertain Supply Chain Management, 12(1), 221–234. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.uscm.2023.10.003
Kahar, F. A., Fadah, I., Wahyudi, E., & Wardhono, A. (2023). Does Soybean in Indonesia Still Competitive?: A Policy Analysis Matrix Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 15(2), 89. https://doi.org/10.17977/um002v15i22023p089
Khumairah, F. H., Irwandhi, Hibatullah, F. H., Ambarita, D. D. M., Hendra, Islamiati, A., Nurbaity, A., Herdiyantoro, D., Kamaluddin, N. N., & Simarmata, T. (2025). Revealing the import dilemma and attributing factors to Indonesia’s inability to achieve soybean self-sufficiency: a bibliometric analysis and systematic literature review. International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability, 23(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2025.2492546
Krisdiana, R., Prasetiaswati, N., Sutrisno, I., Rozi, F., Harsono, A., & Mejaya, M. J. (2021). Financial feasibility and competitiveness levels of soybean varieties in rice-based cropping system of Indonesia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(15). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158334
Kumari, M., & Bharti, N. (2021). Linkages Between Trade Facilitation and Governance: Relevance for Post-COVID-19 Trade Strategy. Millennial Asia, 12(2), 162–189. https://doi.org/10.1177/0976399620972346
Kurniawan, A., & Luthfi, K. R. (2023). Impact of the US-Tiongkok Trade War on Foreign Trade of Emerging Economies: Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 27(2), 157–175. https://doi.org/10.22146/JSP.69215
Mardiyati, S., Natsir, M., & Syafiuddin, S. (2023). Competitiveness and Policy of Soybean Farming in Jeneponto Regency. Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Terapan, 23(2), 234–244. https://doi.org/10.25181/jppt.v23i2.2724
Mas'oed, Muchtar. (1990). Ekonomi Politik Internasional. Yogyakarta: Pusat Pengembangan Fasilitas Bersama Antar Universitas.
Montanía, C. V., Fernández-Núñez, T., & Márquez, M. A. (2021). The role of the leading exporters in the global soybean trade. Agricultural Economics (Czech Republic), 67(7), 277–285. https://doi.org/10.17221/433/2020-AGRICECON
Morão, H. (2025). The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks. Food Policy, 133(March), 102835. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835
Musari, K. (2024). An Analysis of Islamic Helix in a Zero-Waste Soybean Business of Techno-Savvy Micro Enterprises for SDGs (Issue August). https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3693-3530-7.ch002
Naseemullah, A. (2023). The political economy of national development: A research agenda after neoliberal reform? World Development, 168, 106269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106269
Neik, T. X., Siddique, K. H. M., Mayes, S., Edwards, D., Batley, J., Mabhaudhi, T., Song, B. K., & Massawe, F. (2023). Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1124640
Prasetiaswati, N., Adi, D., Elisabeth, A., Wahyu, G., & Susanto, A. (2022). The feasibility cultivation. 02006. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236102006
Purnamasari, A. B., Imam Hidayat, S., & Andrian Syah, M. (2023). Analysis of Indonesia’s Soybean Competitiveness. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 06(08), 3971–3976. https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v6-i8-47
Pusdatin. (2022). Analisa Kerja Perdagangan Kedelai. 12(1), 1–58.
Rozi, F., Subagio, H., Elisabeth, D. A. A., Mufidah, L., Saeri, M., Supriyadi, Burhansyah, R., Kilmanun, J. C., Krisdiana, R., Hanif, Z., Astuty, E. D., & Putri, R. L. (2025). Indonesian foodstuffs in facing global food crisis: Economic aspects of soybean farming. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 19(January), 101669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2025.101669
Salvador, R., Barros, M. V., Donner, M., Brito, P., Halog, A., & De Francisco, A. C. (2022). How to advance regional circular bioeconomy systems? Identifying barriers, challenges, drivers, and opportunities. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 32, 248–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.04.025
Setiadi, A., Santoso, S. I., & Setiawan, B. M. (2021). Performance of Soybean Farming in Java - Indonesia: Determinants and Improvement Strategies. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 20(4), 1–14.
Sibuea, F. A., Sibuea, M. B., & Safitri, S. A. (2024). Indonesian Soybean Import in International Trade. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 21(1), 122–131. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.21.1.122
Sinta, I., Hasnah, H., & Yuzaria, D. (2017). The Effect of Import Tariff Policy on Indonesian Soybean Consumption and Production. International Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 1(2), 75–82. https://doi.org/10.25077/ijasc.1.2.26-32.2017
Slameto, & Meidaliyantisyah. (2023). Added Value Production of the Corn - Soybean Intercropping System on Rainfed Rice Land in the Third Planting Season in Lampung Selatan, Lampung Province. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1172(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1172/1/012006
Slameto, Meidaliyantisyah, & Barus, J. (2021). Implementation of Rice, Corn, Soybean Intercropping Planting System on Acid Land Agroecosystem in Lampung Area. Proceedings of the International Seminar on Promoting Local Resources for Sustainable Agriculture and Development (ISPLRSAD 2020), 13(Isplrsad 2020), 259–266. https://doi.org/10.2991/absr.k.210609.041
Smith, S. (n.d.). RELATIONS THEORY TODAY.
Ssenkugu, S. (2024). Trade Policies and Livestock Exports. International Journal of Livestock Policy, 3(1), 16–29. https://doi.org/10.47941/ijlp.1748
Steve Smith, Amelia Hadfield, & T. D. (2016). Foreign policy: Theories, Actors, Cases. THIRD EDITION. Foreign Policy. https://doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198708902.003.0004
Stockhammer, E., & Kohler, K. (2023). Learning from distant cousins? Post-keynesian economics, comparative political economy, and the growth models approach. Varieties of Capitalism: Second-Generation Perspectives, 56–75. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781035312757.00006
Swastika, D. K. S., Priyanti, A., Hasibuan, A. M., Sahara, D., Arya, N. N., Malik, A., Ilham, N., Sayekti, A. L., Triastono, J., Asnawi, R., Sugandi, D., Hayati, N. Q., & Atman, A. (2024). Pursuing circular economics through the integrated crop-livestock systems: An integrative review on practices, strategies and challenges post Green Revolution in Indonesia. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 18(June), 101269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2024.101269
Tian, F., Woo, S. Y., Lee, S. Y., Park, S. B., Im, J. H., & Chun, H. S. (2022). Mycotoxins in soybean-based foods fermented with filamentous fungi: Occurrence and preventive strategies. Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety, 21(6), 5131–5152. https://doi.org/10.1111/1541-4337.13032
Varzakas, T., & Smaoui, S. (2024). Global Food Security and Sustainability Issues: The Road to 2030 from Nutrition and Sustainable Healthy Diets to Food Systems Change. Foods, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13020306
Vikas, & Ranjan, R. (2024). Agroecological approaches to sustainable development. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8(November). https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1405409
Wang, X., Zhang, L., Cheng, Q., Shi, S., & Niu, H. (2022). What drives risk in Tiongkok’s soybean futures market? Evidence from a flexible GARCH-MIDAS model. Journal of Applied Economics, 25(1), 454–475. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2022.2046989
Yan, J., Xue, Y., Quan, C., Wang, B., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Oligopoly in grain production and consumption: an empirical study on soybean international trade in Tiongkok. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja , 36(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2142818
Zhao, P., & Gao, S. (2025). Green trade barriers, financial support and agricultural exports. International Review of Economics and Finance, 97(September 2024), 103758. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103758.
Copyright (c) 2026 Rahayu Lestari, Luerdi Luerdi, Nibras Fadhlillah, Afiyah Afiyah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
